Ontario Problem Gambling Tripled, and a Study Was Shelved

The NewsTwo reports, one week, one experiment

On April 4, 2022, Ontario became the first Canadian province to open a regulated online gambling market to private operators: casinos and sportsbooks on your phone, with advertising to match. Two investigations published this month asked what it did to people.

On October 18, the Toronto Star's Brendan Kennedy reported that iGaming Ontario, the provincial agency that runs the online market, had commissioned a baseline study of gambling harm before launch, then decided not to release it.

On October 21, CBC News reported a new analysis by Carrie Shaw, a University of Alberta researcher with the Alberta Gambling Research Institute. Using Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) answers from Statistics Canada's 2025 Canadian Community Health Survey, she estimated that nearly 130,000 Ontarians now show signs of problem gambling, up from about 43,000 in 2018. In rate terms, CBC reports, that's a rise of half a percentage point.

"In Ontario's market, gambling is very much normalized through access and advertisements," Shaw told CBC.

We've covered the emergency department study: ED visits for gambling disorder roughly doubled. This is the rest of the evidence, and the record still in a drawer.

The ReceiptsWhat Ontario's own data shows

The survey. The PGSI is a nine-question screen; a high score is a strong signal, not a diagnosis. In a separate online panel Shaw's team presented at the institute's conference in May, average PGSI scores among online gamblers rose in Ontario after the market opened (1.63 to 1.89) and fell in the rest of Canada (1.34 to 1.19). The Ontario group was small, 259 people, so read that as direction, not size.

Her slides list five features of online gambling, "each of which may increase risk for some consumers": constant availability, privacy, event frequency, frictionless expenditure and continuous promotional cues. The last one has a clinical name, cue reactivity, and it's why a betting ad can hit a recovering brain like an ambush.

The helpline. The CMAJ study by Ryan Forrest, Daniel Myran and colleagues examined 745,716 contacts to ConnexOntario, the province's mental health and addictions helpline, from January 2012 to September 2025; 37,087 were about gambling. The monthly rate per million people 15 and older went from 13.4 before the province's own online casino, PlayOLG, launched in 2015, to 17.0 after it, to 26.2 after privatization. Among boys and men 15 to 24, it more than quadrupled, from 13.8 to 57.4.

The authors note that gambling ads carry helpline information, so some of the rise may be people finding the line. Still, total helpline volume didn't grow over the period while gambling contacts did. In their model, privatization alone is associated with about 19% more contacts by September 2025 than the post-2015 trend predicted, and both online launches together with about 198% more than if neither had happened. The results, they write, suggest "increased gambling problems, care-seeking, or both."

The coroner. CBC reports that, according to the Office of the Chief Coroner of Ontario, the province averaged about five gambling-related suicides a year from 2016 to 2021, as classified by the coroner, and that the number tripled after 2022. The base is small, and CBC did not publish yearly counts. If you're thinking about ending your life, help is there right now: in the U.S., call or text 988 for the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline; in Canada, call or text 9-8-8. We've written about gambling and suicide risk, and what helps.

The DrawerThe study built to settle it

Ontario did something that should be routine. Before launch, according to the Star, iGaming Ontario commissioned a two-year baseline study following the same people across three waves. The contract went to the Responsible Gambling Council, a charity that also runs the responsible gambling accreditation program Ontario operators must complete. Two academics joined, Iris Balodis of McMaster University and Michael Wohl of Carleton University, who have said their participation depended on the findings being published.

Wave one ran in February 2022, two months before launch, on an online panel, a method that tends to produce higher problem gambling rates. That's a fair caveat on the agency's side. The researchers reported rates significantly higher than the agency had anticipated.

The rest is in internal records the Star obtained under freedom of information law, after a successful appeal to Ontario's Information and Privacy Commissioner:

• February 2023: an agency official wrote about getting legal advice on whether the researchers might hold copies of the data.
• 2023: the agency hired Counsel Public Affairs for "strategic planning and reactive messaging support" related to the study.
• September 2023: notes from a meeting with the firm asked whether there was a "gag-order" and suggested that if the researchers got the data, "maybe they won't bad mouth."
• September 2024: notes dated January 2025 say feedback "was never fully incorporated" into the report, and that the previous September the agency decided to stop the work, spend no more on it, and not release it.

Matthew Young, chief research officer at Greo Evidence Insights (formerly the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre, which the province defunded in 2019), told CBC he asked government two years ago to track online gambling and was ignored. "We warned that we might be seeing the harms that we're now seeing in the data," he said. The province says it has spent $421 million on responsible gambling education, research and treatment since 2018.

Whatever the study's flaws, a baseline's job is to give later numbers something to be measured against. It can't do that from a drawer. Ontario NDP critic Kristyn Wong-Tam said it plainly: "The bare minimum the Ford government should do is be honest about its harms."

Reading It HonestlyWhat this does and doesn't prove

None of this is a controlled experiment. Each source measures something different, with its own blind spots. Awareness may have grown. Ads carry the helpline. Online panels run high.

What's hard to explain away is the pattern. Every source moved the same way after the same launch. The two that break results out by age and sex, the helpline and hospital data, both point to young men. And outside Ontario, Shaw's comparison group moved the other way.

For U.S. ReadersYour state is running the same experiment

Alberta followed Ontario on July 13, 2026. In the U.S., Epic Research counted 39 states plus the District of Columbia with legal sports betting as of early 2026, and found diagnosed gambling disorder up about 61% in those states while it fell 29% in the rest. For the closest U.S. matches, states that opened online casinos and sportsbooks together, see what followed in Michigan and Connecticut.

The harm tends to show up when someone looks. Whether anyone looks is a choice.

Your Own BaselineWhat to do with this today

Keeping a bad number in a drawer isn't only an institutional habit. Lying to hide how much you gamble is one of the nine DSM-5 criteria for gambling disorder (312.31; ICD-10 F63.0), and not opening the statement is the quiet version.

You can run your own baseline in about ten minutes. It isn't meant to find a safe amount; for someone already in trouble, there isn't one. It's meant to let you see clearly.

1. The money. Open every betting app and pull your transaction history for the last 90 days. Add up deposits, subtract withdrawals, and write down the net.
2. The time. Check your phone's screen-time report for those apps.
3. The people. Write down who doesn't know that number.

If the answers scare you, close the doors. Self-exclude: Ontario's new BetGuard does it in one registration for every regulated site, while in the U.S. it's mostly state by state and the gaps are real. Then block the apps on every device. If this is about someone you love, here's how to help.

Ontario's study is still in a drawer. Yours doesn't have to be. Our urgent help page lists free, confidential options by state, including text.

Sources

1. CBC News Investigates: problem gambling and gambling-related suicides in Ontario after the online expansion. CBC News, October 21, 2026. Primary for the Shaw estimate (130,000 vs. about 43,000; 0.5 percentage points), the coroner figures, the Shaw and Young quotes, and the province's $421 million and $70 million figures. CBC blocks automated retrieval; we verified the text through items 2 and 3.
2. Full-text republication of the CBC investigation. NewsBeep, October 21, 2026. Exact wording of the Shaw and Young quotes, the coroner sentence ("an average of five gambling-related suicides each year from 2016 to 2021... That number tripled after 2022"), and "0.5 percentage point."
3. CBC: Ontario Problem Gambling Estimates Triple Since 2022 Expansion. Charlie Mullan, Gambling.com, October 21, 2026. Independent summary confirming the CBC figures, Young's title, and Greo's history.
4. Ontario government hid study on rates of problem gambling, internal documents reveal. Brendan Kennedy, Toronto Star, October 18, 2026. Primary investigation. Paywalled and blocked to automated retrieval; details confirmed through items 5 to 8.
5. iGaming Ontario Shelved Problem Gambling Study, Records Show. Sergey Demidov, RG.org, October 19, 2026. Three-wave design, the Council's role, Balodis and Wohl, February 2022 online panel, the February 2023 legal advice, the Counsel Public Affairs contract wording, the "gag-order" and "bad mouth" meeting notes, the January 2025 notes, the 2024 spokesperson quote, the agency statement, the economic interests exemption and appeal, and the Wong-Tam quote.
6. Ontario government hid study on rates of problem gambling, internal documents reveal. CDC Gaming, October 18, 2026. Confirms the Star's byline, date and core finding.
7. Ontario Shelved Its Own Gambling Harm Study. Here's What We Know. NetNewsLedger, October 19, 2026. Independent confirmation of the February 2023 legal advice, the PR contract, the September 2024 decision, and the agency's statement.
8. Ontario Allegedly Hid Study Showing More Serious Problem Gambling. Melanie Porter, GamblingNews, October 19, 2026. Confirms the online panel, the methodology objection, the economic interests exemption, and the Star's appeal.
9. Help-seeking for gambling problems following expansion of Ontario's online gambling market and legalization of single-event sports betting. Ryan Forrest, Robert Talarico, Anosha Waqar, Daniel T. Myran, CMAJ 2026;198(8):E281-E290, March 2, 2026, doi:10.1503/cmaj.251894. Peer-reviewed. 745,716 and 37,087 contacts; 13.4, 17.0 and 26.2 per million; 13.8 to 57.4 among males 15 to 24; the 18.7% and 198.3% model estimates; flat total contact volume; limitations and interpretation.
10. New study finds sharp rise in young men contacting Ontario gambling helpline. Rianna Lim, The Canadian Press via CP24, March 2, 2026. Secondary confirmation of the CMAJ findings.
11. The Impact of 'Opening' the Online Gambling Market in Ontario: Changes in Engagement and Problem Gambling. Carrie A. Shaw, Robert Williams, Michael Wohl, Bo Truong, Joanna Park, Alberta Gambling Research Institute Conference, May 2026 (slides; conference materials page). Panel sizes (259 and 920), PGSI means among online gamblers, and the five features of online gambling.
12. AGCO's centralized self-exclusion standards are now in effect. Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario, May 14, 2026. BetGuard launch date and scope.
13. Let the iGames begin: What you need to know about Ontario's new igaming market. Borden Ladner Gervais, April 20, 2022. April 4, 2022 launch; Ontario as the first province to run a private online betting market.
14. Regulated iGaming market goes live in Alberta. Jack Farrell, Turtle Island News, July 13, 2026. Alberta's July 13, 2026 launch as the second province.
15. Gambling Disorder Diagnoses Have Risen More Than 60% in States That Legalized Sports Betting. Epic Research, June 26, 2026. About 61% increase; 29% decrease in non-legal states; 39 states plus DC as of early 2026.
16. Emergency room visits for gambling disorders nearly doubled after expanded online gambling market. ICES and North York General Hospital release via EurekAlert, September 16, 2026, on Forrest, Myran et al., American Journal of Preventive Medicine. The ED doubling, concentrated in males.
17. 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline and 9-8-8: Suicide Crisis Helpline. Call or text, 24/7, in the U.S. and Canada.